Bihar Elections - A Potential Game-Changer

The assembly elections in Bihar will be a test for both  Nitish Kumar and Bihar. If Nitish wins, his stand on performance-driven politics will be vindictated. If he loses, it will affirm the popular perception that Bihar cannot rise above caste politics. 

Bihar has been used, globally, as an example of poor governance. Elections have always been fought on the lines of caste and community mobilisation. This time the battle for the 243 seats is between casteism and development.

During  the five year rule of Nitish Kumar, “development” has been the buzzword. He has been able to take Bihar forward from a  3.5% growth rate to 11% in five years. An unprecedented crackdown on anti-social elements has improved law and order in a state, that was notorious for its absence. Social intervention and infrastructure build-up, hitherto unknown, are now changing its face. Accomplishments that have won Nitish accolades across all sections of society and managed to put Bihar back on the map for India’s industrialists.

Nitish has very cunningly intertwined development with the ground realities to boost his support base. His alliance with the BJP has ensured him the backing of the upper castes. But he has always kept the Hindutva agenda of the BJP at a distance. He took exception to the famous Nitish –Modi handshake advertisement and ensured that Modi did not campaign in Bihar for the BJP. And he has reaped its benefits. Muslims, inspite of the Allahabad High Court verdict on Ayodhya, seem to favour Nitish.

He has carved out a new section from the existing Dalit community in the form of Mahadalits or Most Backward Classes, thereby creating a huge dent in his opposition’s support base. Mahadalits form 36% of the Dalits that have traditionally favoured the RJD-LJP combine.

Nitish, for the first time, gave Bihar’s women 50% reservation in the Panchayat Raj institutions. Winning the support of women means support across caste and class divisions. The turn-out of women in the 2010 elections has gone up by 10%, compared to the 2005 polls.

Interestingly, Nitish has also been able to make inroads into the Yadav community, the single most important opposition to his Government. The young Yadavs in Bihar now prefer development over caste affiliation.

Lalu Yadav, is, as always, riding on his caste card. So is Ram Vilas Paswan. The combine will be able to pull in the Yadavs and the Paswans. But even in constituencies that have been Lalu’s traditional strongholds, disillusionment with him is gaining ground.

The Congress seeks to repeat its stunt in UP, by putting Rahul in the forefront of its poll campaign and going it alone in Bihar. That it is aware of its fate is evident in its handpicking  Mehboob Ali Qaiser as the President of the Bihar Congress. Fielding a weakling like him against the likes of Lalu and Nitish looks like  a disaster in itself. The Congress will focus more on dividing the votes between RJD-LJP and JD(U)-BJP. It is definitely not in this fight to win.

All the six phases of the elections are over, with record turnout and minimal violence. If the popular sentiment and exit polls are anything to go by, Nitish seems all set to come back. The question is, how strongly. Caught between progress and patronage, the electoral dynamics of Bihar are complex. A verdict in favour of Nitish will change the ground rules of electoral battles in Bihar and India at large, forever.  Its immediate implications will be seen in the UP Assembly elections, next year.